Winning the Olympics

This video has an interesting showerthought about how to define who wins the olympics.

In short, rather than absolute number of medals (which favors large nations) or medals per capita (which favors small nations), a probabilistic-y combination of them is proposed (that’s obviously the technical term for it. Essentially …

Forecasting S-Curves

Forecasting s-curves (sigmoid, logistic, etc.) is hard.

This article has an easy explanation of why, and a conclusion that often predicting the specific s-curve given data is hard even up until one is already at the “flattening” portion of the curve.

New” Objects in Problems

This 3b1b video points out a nice heuristic for how to find solutions to a general problem.

The “source” problem there is about randomly choosing points on a sphere and asking what the probability is that the induced tetrahedron contains the center of the sphere.

But the “algorithm” to find …